突发事件下安全舆情的传播与演变——以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例

为明确突发事件安全舆情传播与演变路径，提高企业防控突发事件安全舆情传播风险能力，降低衍生灾害发生概率，在文献分析及事故致因理论基础上，构建突发事件安全舆情传播与演变过程的系统动力学（SD）模型，并运用Vensim软件对以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例进行仿真实验，模拟安全舆情传播与演变动态过程。结果表明:突发事件安全舆情传播与演变主要受事件自身、媒体、相关企业监管层、相关企业执行层4个主体的共同影响，其中事件自身因素起效时间最早，相关企业监管层影响作用最大、维持时间最持久，相关企业执行层影响最直接。     

基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究

为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷，提出结合模糊推理技术的Fuzzy FRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态；依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量；根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系，针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题，采用模糊证据推理技术，通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例，验证方法的可行性。结果表明:Fuzzy FRAM模型的评估结果较为精确，是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。     

移动通信技术发展对安全生产影响研究*

为了深入揭示安全生产水平同移动通信技术发展的内在联系，提出安全生产信息技术能力的概念及其监控管理连接、救援响应监测、定位导航追踪3方面子能力的定义，进而通过构建3方面子能力同移动通信主要性能指标之间的关系模型（SPITCMC），并对其进行深入分析和研究。研究结果表明:SPITCMC模型可以准确诠释过去移动通信技术发展对安全生产水平产生的影响，同时可用于预判未来移动通信技术发展对安全生产可能产生的影响程度，从而为后续相关工作的开展提供参考和借鉴。     

废铅酸蓄电池污染防治技术及相关政策分析

废铅酸蓄电池具有一定的回收价值,但生产过程和回收过程都容易造成污染。为了引导企业对废旧电池进行正确处理,也为了防止环境被破坏,必须采取科学合理的技术和工艺,并遵循国家相关政策,本文就对此进行了分析,希望能给相关工作提供借鉴。     

空气污染天气过程与气象要素之间的关联性分析

随着经济和社会的不断发展,地球的环境正在遭受着严重的侵害,关于环境的问题也日益显现出来,比如全球变暖、雾霾等现象。本文分析了空气污染的因素、气象要素对空气质量的影响,并提出了防治空气污染的对策。     

污水处理厂设备维护管理优化研究

以JL污水处理厂设备管理优化过程为例,充分吸取LCC,TPM中的先进思想,以设备运行可靠性及设备维护经济性为追求目标,建立了设备管理优化体系。流程体系上,通过建立作业指导文件,建立标准化维修程序,对于操作过程及时进行记录,建立可视化、可追溯的管理方法;指标体系上,根据设备重要性及运行状况,确定设备风险指数,分级管理;建立控制指标,并动态调整;管控体系上,建立设备“户口”,对设备的维护、保养、使用等信息进行全面登记;考核设备维护的全面性、及时性、可靠性、合规性;重视设备维护的预计与预警;技术体系上,通过设备监测仪器的使用,对设备运行状况定量化。通过不断推进设备预防性维护工作,设备完好率不断提升,仪表完好率从2016年的97.34%,96.55%水平,分别提升至99.08%,98.72%;维护费用也保持在较低水平,检修费与资产比例在实施的前两年分别降至1.49%,0.85%,实现了污水处理厂节能降耗及运行可靠性的强化。     

汽车道路试验安全管理体系建设研究

为了保障汽车道路试验安全、提高安全管理水平,设计提出汽车道路试验安全管理体系(SMS)总方案。根据OHSAS 18001和安全标准化规范的特点分析,论证了融合两种体系建立道路试验SMS的适用性。并从政策与目标、风险管理、安全保证和安全促进四个模块阐述了该体系的搭建思路、框架内容和搭建步骤。最后,以某自主品牌车企研发中心道路试验的应用情况为例进行效果评估,结果表明:汽车道路试验SMS能有效防控风险、提升试验安全管理水平。     

Efficient removal of Cr(VI) by a 3D Z-scheme TiO2-ZnxCd1-xS graphene aerogel via synergy of adsorption and photocatalysis under visible light

Efficient and robust photocatalysts for environmental pollutants removal with outstanding stability have great significance. Herein, we report a kind of three dimensional (3D) photocatalyst presented as Z-scheme heterojunction, which combining TiO 2 and Zn x Cd 1- x S with graphene aerogel to contrast TiO 2 -Zn x Cd 1- x S graphene aerogel (TSGA, x = 0.5) through a moderate hydrothermal process. The as-prepared Z-scheme TSGA was used to remove aqueous Cr(VI) via a synergistic effect of adsorption and visible light photocatalysis. The adsorption equilibrium can be reached about 40 min, then after about 30 min irradiation under visible light (wavelength ( λ) > 420 nm) the removal rate of Cr(VI) almost reached 100%, which is much better than the performance of pristine TiO 2 and Zn 0.5 Cd 0.5 S, as well as TiO 2 graphene aerogel (TGA) and Zn 0.5 Cd 0.5 S graphene aerogel (SGA). The virulent Cr(VI) was reduced to Cr(III) with hypotoxicity after photocatalysis on TSGA, meanwhile the as-synthesized TSGA presented a good stability and reusability. The reduced graphene oxide (rGO) sheets between TiO 2 and Zn 0.5 Cd 0.5 S played a role as charge transfer mediator, promoting the photoinduced electrons transfer and photocatalysis ability of TSGA was enhanced significantly. Hence,such photocatalyst exhibits a potential application on removing heavy metals with high efficiency and stability from polluted aqueous environment.     

Understanding implications of consumer behavior for wildlife farming and sustainable wildlife trade

Unsustainable wildlife trade affects biodiversity and the livelihoods of communities dependent upon those resources. Wildlife farming has been proposed to promote sustainable trade, but characterizing markets and understanding consumer behavior remain neglected but essential steps in the design and evaluation of such operations. We used sea turtle trade in the Cayman Islands, where turtles have been farm raised for human consumption for almost 50 years, as a case study to explore consumer preferences toward wild‐sourced (illegal) and farmed (legal) products and potential conservation implications. Combining methods innovatively (including indirect questioning and choice experiments), we conducted a nationwide trade assessment through in‐person interviews from September to December 2014. Households were randomly selected using disproportionate stratified sampling, and responses were weighted based on district population size. We approached 597 individuals, of which 37 (6.2%) refused to participate. Although 30% of households had consumed turtle in the previous 12 months, the purchase and consumption of wild products was rare (e.g., 64–742 resident households consumed wild turtle meat [i.e., 0.3–3.5% of households] but represented a large threat to wild turtles in the area due to their reduced populations). Differences among groups of consumers were marked, as identified through choice experiments, and price and source of product played important roles in their decisions. Despite the long‐term practice of farming turtles, 13.5% of consumers showed a strong preference for wild products, which demonstrates the limitations of wildlife farming as a single tool for sustainable wildlife trade. By using a combination of indirect questioning, choice experiments, and sales data to investigate demand for wildlife products, we obtained insights about consumer behavior that can be used to develop conservation‐demand‐focused initiatives. Lack of data from long‐term social–ecological assessments hinders the evaluation of and learning from wildlife farming. This information is key to understanding under which conditions different interventions (e.g., bans, wildlife farming, social marketing) are likely to succeed.     

海洋平台圆柱体坠落运动轨迹及落点分析

传统的角度偏差经验值方法导致落物风险评价过程中的落点和危险区预测存在较大误差，科学化、立体化、完整化、多因素概化的落物轨迹和落点分析方法及工具缺位。为此，以海洋平台圆柱体落物为研究对象开展先导研究，在2D运动理论模型基础上，考虑3维、6度受力与运动参数，引入粘性拖曳力系数经验公式、海流运动、旋转升力和力矩项，建立了具有普适性的落物水下3D运动轨迹预测模型，并以现场实验数据校验表明模型方法可行、结果更可信；据此以Matlab 2016为程序设计平台编制了海洋平台圆柱体坠落运动预测分析工具（MREDP），分析了坠落运动落点分布规律。研究结果表明:随着初始倾斜角度的增大，落点偏移距离呈现先增后降的趋势，于62°时达到最大值，运动轨迹整体呈现螺线曲率减小、向轨迹曲线外开口侧偏移趋势；落点分布变化可分为Y轴偏移稳定主导阶段、X轴偏移实力型快速主导阶段和X轴偏移机会型主导阶段3个阶段；相对MREDP预测结果，DNVGL-RP-F107经验性角度偏差推荐结果较为保守，MREDP可为DNVGL-RP-F107提供更加准确、可信的轨迹曲线和落点取值。基于分析结果，提出了采用Monte Carlo方法表征实际工程中起始运动参数随机性和入水撞击产生的不确定性等建议。